Intersection of Macro and Micro Levels: Childbearing Decisions and Uncertainty Shaped by Global Factors

Alina Norgėlaitė
Institute of Sociology at the Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences

Even though there are plenty of studies that aim to explain birth rate tendencies and what causes them to change, none of them were able to fully explain the declining birth rates in Northern countries and Western Europe. Recently, more focus has been placed on people of fertile age and their interactions with uncertainty regarding childbearing decisions. Subjective evaluation of the present and the future when uncertainty is present can affect decisions that have long term consequences.
The presentation aims to present the findings of qualitative research conducted in 2021-2022. The goal of the research was to explore how Lithuanians react to the pandemic, war in Ukraine, climate change and how such threats affect childbearing decisions. In total, thirty semi-structured interviews were conducted with informants, born in 1970-1989. The research revealed that threats, which had the potential to have a personal impact, were more relevant to childbearing decisions. The least understood threat was climate change. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine were more recognized and were more associated with postponing childbearing. However, uncertainty caused by the latter two threats was stronger at first, when they appeared, and lessened with time. Under given unfavorable circumstances for childbearing, uncertainty can be adjusted by the number of children already in the family, a new partnership, or a strong desire to have children.